Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -108 GMU -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +18 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.8 (+19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.5 (+18.5) | 133.8 (+10.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.8 (+17.2) | 134.4 (+9.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.2 (+18.2) | 132.4 (+11.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.6 (+18.6) | 132.8 (+11.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JOES 75 – 73 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 17-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#160) | 5.0 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#112) | 1.24 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#128) | 1.34 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#102) | 0.572 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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