Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -175 JOES +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -4.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.8 (-4.8) | 132.4 (-17.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -6.5 (-5.5) | 129.4 (-14.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -6.3 (-5.3) | 130.2 (-15.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -6.4 (-5.4) | 131.3 (-16.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JOES 75 – 73 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#71) | 6.4 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#50) | 0.72 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#43) | 0.92 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#37) | 0.543 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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