Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -200 GMU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -4.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.5 (-1.5) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -2.4 (-0.4) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.2 (-1.2) | 140.1 (+7.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.0 (-1.0) | 140.5 (+7.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#86) | 5.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | 1.57 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#111) | 1.75 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#121) | 0.581 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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