Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | GMU +110 JOES -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -0.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.4 (+9.6) | 131.7 (+6.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.3 (+10.3) | 134.0 (+4.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.3 (+9.7) | 133.4 (+4.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.2 (+9.8) | 134.7 (+3.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JOES 75 – 73 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#85) | 7.3 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#58) | 1.03 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#57) | 1.29 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#26) | 0.561 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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