Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -138 JOES +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +7 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -0.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.1 (-6.9) | 136.2 (-15.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.1 (-7.1) | 136.2 (-15.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.0 (-7.0) | 136.0 (-15.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.1 (-7.1) | 137.2 (-16.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JOES 75 – 73 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#94) | 5.8 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#92) | 0.96 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | 1.07 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#71) | 0.542 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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