Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -305 JOES +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -9.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -9.1 (-1.1) | 136.1 (-24.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -8.6 (-0.6) | 134.4 (-22.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -9.2 (-1.2) | 134.7 (-22.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -9.8 (-1.8) | 135.9 (-23.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JOES 75 – 73 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#88) | 0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#55) | 0.60 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#62) | 0.48 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#41) | 0.534 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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