Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -175 DAV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | DUQ -2.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -3.1 (-14.1) | 142.5 (-19.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -2.1 (-13.1) | 142.1 (-19.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -2.5 (-13.5) | 141.0 (-18.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -2.9 (-13.9) | 142.6 (-19.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUQ 89 – 83 DAV |
| Jan 4, 2025 | DAV 77 – 71 DUQ |
| Feb 8, 2024 | DAV 72 – 59 DUQ |
| Feb 26, 2023 | DAV 71 – 67 DUQ |
| Feb 24, 2022 | DAV 74 – 50 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#122) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#120) | 0.52 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#121) | 0.69 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#117) | 0.543 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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