Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -245 SCU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -3.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -4.5 (+14.5) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.8 (+14.2) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -4.4 (+14.6) | 148.1 (+4.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.8 (+14.2) | 149.5 (+3.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | SCU 76 – 71 SMC |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SCU 62 – 54 SMC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SMC 73 – 64 SCU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SMC 67 – 54 SCU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | SMC 79 – 65 SCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#32) | 14.5 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#29) | 2.29 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#28) | 3.15 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#14) | 0.599 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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