Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -218 SCU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +5 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -2.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -3.4 (-8.4) | 145.1 (+1.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.1 (-7.1) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -2.4 (-7.4) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -3.4 (-8.4) | 144.7 (+2.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SMC 86 – 67 SCU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SCU 62 – 54 SMC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SMC 73 – 64 SCU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SMC 67 – 54 SCU |
| Mar 12, 2024 | SMC 79 – 65 SCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#28) | 13.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#22) | 2.28 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#20) | 3.07 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#10) | 0.597 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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