Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -245 XAV +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -5.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -6.0 (+4.0) | 167.7 (+10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.7 (+4.3) | 167.6 (+10.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -5.5 (+4.5) | 165.2 (+12.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -5.9 (+4.1) | 168.9 (+9.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | XAV 85 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#71) | 5.7 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#92) | 1.03 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#85) | 1.57 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#179) | 0.516 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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