Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -150 XAV +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +20 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -4.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.9 (-23.9) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.6 (-23.6) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.8 (-23.8) | 135.8 (+14.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.9 (-23.9) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#52) | 10.0 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#53) | 0.69 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#39) | 1.54 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#45) | 0.553 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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