Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -1000 PROV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -11.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -12.3 (-4.3) | 148.3 (-4.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -9.9 (-1.9) | 147.7 (-3.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -12.5 (-4.5) | 148.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -11.2 (-3.2) | 149.2 (-5.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | XAV 85 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#41) | 5.3 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#55) | 0.30 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#50) | 0.80 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#62) | 0.494 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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