Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -225 PROV +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -3.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.1 (-8.1) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.2 (-8.2) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.4 (-7.4) | 145.7 (+8.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.6 (-7.6) | 146.6 (+7.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | XAV 85 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#49) | 9.9 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#87) | 1.60 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#62) | 2.11 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#92) | 0.559 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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