Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -102 PROV -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -1.1 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.0 (+13.0) | 167.4 (+13.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.9 (+12.1) | 163.1 (+17.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.0 (+14.0) | 162.0 (+19.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.7 (+13.7) | 161.4 (+19.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | XAV 85 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#120) | 8.1 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#115) | 0.97 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#103) | 1.65 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#104) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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