Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +135 XAV -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +9 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -1.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.5 (-8.5) | 144.6 (+28.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.8 (-9.8) | 145.1 (+27.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.5 (-8.5) | 144.2 (+28.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.2 (-9.2) | 144.8 (+28.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
| Jan 13, 2024 | XAV 85 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 11.4 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#129) | 1.56 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#100) | 2.13 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#148) | 0.540 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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