Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -600 BTLR +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -8.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -10.3 (-1.3) | 151.1 (+3.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -9.2 (-0.2) | 149.4 (+5.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.2 (-0.2) | 148.5 (+6.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.8 (+0.2) | 150.9 (+4.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BTLR 88 – 81 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#40) | 8.7 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#25) | 1.24 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.69 (#23) | 1.59 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#27) | 0.518 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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