Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -125 VILL +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | BUT -4.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -2.5 (-10.5) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -3.6 (-11.6) | 146.8 (-8.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -2.7 (-10.7) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -2.5 (-10.5) | 144.1 (-6.1) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BUT |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BUT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BUT |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BUT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BUT 88 – 81 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | 8.6 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#86) | 0.52 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#61) | 0.84 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#95) | 0.511 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 37.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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