Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -125 VILL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -2.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -2.5 (+4.5) | 144.4 (+24.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.0 (+6.0) | 144.5 (+24.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -3.5 (+3.5) | 144.2 (+24.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.7 (+4.3) | 143.7 (+25.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#53) | 11.6 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#69) | 1.45 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#62) | 1.95 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#83) | 0.585 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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