Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BUT -148 VILL +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | BUT -4.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -2.7 (-20.7) | 146.1 (+5.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -2.7 (-20.7) | 142.8 (+9.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -2.8 (-20.8) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -2.2 (-20.2) | 143.3 (+8.7) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BUT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BUT |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BUT |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BUT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BUT 88 – 81 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#39) | 13.2 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#52) | 3.45 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#58) | 5.23 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#55) | 0.646 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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