Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -300 BTLR +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -5.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.7 (+3.3) | 142.7 (-8.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.1 (+3.9) | 142.8 (-8.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -6.6 (+3.4) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.5 (+3.5) | 143.0 (-9.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BTLR 88 – 81 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#35) | 10.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#79) | 1.69 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#63) | 2.02 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#81) | 0.543 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.