Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -400 BTLR +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -6.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.2 (+3.8) | 143.4 (+6.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.4 (+3.6) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.6 (+4.4) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.6 (+4.4) | 144.7 (+5.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BTLR 88 – 81 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#52) | 8.4 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#80) | 0.66 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#70) | 1.27 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#136) | 0.517 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 11.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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