Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -238 SJU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +32 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -4.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -5.3 (+26.7) | 147.5 (-35.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.5 (+26.5) | 146.7 (-34.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.1 (+26.9) | 145.5 (-33.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.3 (+26.7) | 147.7 (-35.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CONN 95 – 90 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 18-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#13) | 19.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.26 (#4) | 3.03 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.24 (#4) | 3.84 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#4) | 0.624 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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