Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -190 SJU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +6 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -1.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.3 (-7.3) | 142.2 (-12.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -2.3 (-8.3) | 140.2 (-10.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -1.0 (-7.0) | 140.9 (-10.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.2 (-7.2) | 140.6 (-10.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CONN 95 – 90 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 19-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#31) | 17.3 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#45) | 2.97 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#35) | 4.39 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#60) | 0.630 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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