Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -500 SJU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +5 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+36.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -13.2 (-8.2) | 147.7 (+37.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.4 (-6.4) | 147.6 (+37.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.2 (-7.2) | 149.5 (+35.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.2 (-6.2) | 151.6 (+33.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 21.8 (#4) | 13.6 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.80 (#3) | 1.75 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.48 (#3) | 2.37 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#8) | 0.554 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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