Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -170 CONN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -6.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -6.8 (+7.2) | 139.3 (+24.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -7.1 (+6.9) | 139.4 (+24.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.1 (+6.9) | 140.3 (+23.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -6.6 (+7.4) | 139.8 (+24.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CONN 95 – 90 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 14-6 |
| Home | 19-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#18) | 14.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#20) | 1.95 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#8) | 2.95 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#14) | 0.558 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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