Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +124 CONN -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +20 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -1.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -1.0 (+19.0) | 139.7 (-15.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.1 (+17.9) | 137.2 (-13.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.7 (+17.3) | 137.4 (-13.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.8 (+17.2) | 136.6 (-12.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CONN 95 – 90 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 18-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 18.5 (#19) | 20.4 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#15) | 4.00 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#18) | 4.89 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#15) | 0.642 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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