Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SJU +120 CONN -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -0.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -0.7 (+8.3) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.2 (+6.8) | 140.1 (+12.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -1.0 (+8.0) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -1.5 (+7.5) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CONN 95 – 90 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 17-3 |
| Home | 18-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#20) | 21.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#30) | 5.46 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#30) | 7.27 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#26) | 0.673 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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