Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -198 GASO +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -6.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -7.1 (+8.9) | 152.2 (-4.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -6.7 (+9.3) | 153.1 (-5.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -6.5 (+9.5) | 148.9 (-0.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.2 (+9.8) | 151.9 (-3.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | GASO 96 – 92 JMU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JMU 78 – 73 GASO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | JMU 77 – 72 GASO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | JMU 80 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | JMU 87 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#222) | -6.6 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#173) | -0.78 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#193) | -1.24 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#128) | 0.452 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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