Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -650 BRY +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -13.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -13.0 (-1.0) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UMBC -9.8 (+2.2) | 136.0 (-8.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UMBC -13.5 (-1.5) | 135.7 (-7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -12.5 (-0.5) | 135.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | BRY 99 – 95 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#235) | -15.2 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#233) | -2.63 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#240) | -3.24 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#220) | 0.409 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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