Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC +175 BRY -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +6 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -2.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -2.0 (-4.0) | 162.0 (+16.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -3.8 (-2.2) | 165.2 (+12.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -2.0 (-4.0) | 163.8 (+14.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -1.9 (-4.1) | 164.7 (+13.3) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | BRY 99 – 95 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#255) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#263) | -0.19 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#250) | 0.22 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#269) | 0.514 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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