Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BRY +105 UMBC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -1.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -3.0 (+8.0) | 132.1 (+20.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.2 (+6.2) | 134.0 (+19.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.6 (+7.6) | 133.6 (+19.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.2 (+7.2) | 133.3 (+19.7) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | BRY 99 – 95 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-17 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#329) | -7.1 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#332) | -1.12 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#333) | -1.57 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#324) | 0.440 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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