Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | BRY -1000 UMBC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRY +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | BRY -11.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -10.5 (-8.5) | 160.4 (-0.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -10.9 (-8.9) | 162.2 (-2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -11.2 (-9.2) | 162.2 (-2.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -10.2 (-8.2) | 161.9 (-1.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | BRY 99 – 95 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-9 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#157) | -7.9 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#190) | -1.46 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#166) | -1.54 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#139) | 0.439 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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