Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +160 SMU -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -3.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.6 (+6.6) | 156.8 (-14.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.9 (+5.9) | 156.0 (-14.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.4 (+5.4) | 157.7 (-15.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.2 (+5.2) | 160.5 (-18.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2025 | SMU 81 – 77 CAL |
| Jan 30, 2025 | SMU 76 – 65 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#60) | 16.2 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#46) | 2.38 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#51) | 3.29 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#57) | 0.601 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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