Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -1400 CAL +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -12.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -11.0 (-0.0) | 152.3 (-11.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -11.7 (-0.7) | 153.6 (-12.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -12.0 (-1.0) | 153.7 (-12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -12.9 (-1.9) | 154.9 (-13.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CAL 73 – 69 SMU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SMU 81 – 77 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#43) | 3.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#51) | 0.74 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#53) | 0.94 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#59) | 0.517 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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