Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | TULN +205 TLSA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +34 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -8.4 (-25.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -5.1 (-28.9) | 148.2 (-2.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -5.9 (-28.1) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -7.0 (-27.0) | 150.0 (-4.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -5.9 (-28.1) | 149.1 (-3.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | TULN 79 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TULN 94 – 87 TLSA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | TLSA 81 – 79 TULN |
| Jan 5, 2023 | TULN 93 – 77 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#187) | 10.0 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#125) | 1.40 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#163) | 1.73 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#121) | 0.565 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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