Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -800 TLSA +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +16 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -13.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -9.7 (+6.3) | 155.5 (+14.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -10.4 (+5.6) | 150.9 (+19.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -11.3 (+4.7) | 150.6 (+19.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -11.2 (+4.8) | 153.1 (+16.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 56 TULN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TULN 79 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TULN 94 – 87 TLSA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | TLSA 81 – 79 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-11 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 12-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-4 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#126) | -6.0 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#154) | -1.06 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#153) | -1.13 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#158) | 0.433 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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