Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +140 TULN -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +2 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -2.8 (+0.8) | 139.7 (+16.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -3.1 (+1.1) | 142.4 (+13.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -3.0 (+1.0) | 141.6 (+14.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -3.2 (+1.2) | 141.5 (+14.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 56 TULN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TULN 94 – 87 TLSA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | TLSA 81 – 79 TULN |
| Jan 5, 2023 | TULN 93 – 77 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-9 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#272) | 0.9 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#280) | -0.11 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#277) | -0.08 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#316) | 0.497 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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