Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +350 TULN -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +2 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -7.9 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -7.6 (+9.6) | 158.7 (+1.3) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -7.3 (+9.3) | 158.0 (+2.0) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -7.9 (+9.9) | 160.2 (-0.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -7.7 (+9.7) | 159.2 (+0.8) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 56 TULN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TULN 79 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TULN 94 – 87 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | TULN 93 – 77 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#272) | 5.5 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#318) | 0.93 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#292) | 1.24 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#324) | 0.541 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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