Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +115 TULN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +7 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -1.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -1.8 (-5.2) | 155.1 (+25.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -0.9 (-6.1) | 153.7 (+27.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -1.3 (-5.7) | 154.1 (+26.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -0.4 (-6.6) | 156.3 (+24.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 56 TULN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TULN 79 – 77 TLSA |
| Feb 2, 2025 | TULN 59 – 56 TLSA |
| Jan 22, 2023 | TLSA 81 – 79 TULN |
| Jan 5, 2023 | TULN 93 – 77 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#169) | 5.3 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#215) | 0.58 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#215) | 1.06 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#260) | 0.507 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 19.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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