Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CLT +114 UNT -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | CLT -1.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -0.0 (+1.0) | 136.6 (+22.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -0.5 (+1.5) | 135.1 (+23.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -0.9 (+0.1) | 134.7 (+24.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -0.1 (+0.9) | 136.1 (+22.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNT 75 – 64 CLT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CLT 56 – 44 UNT |
| Feb 24, 2023 | CLT 55 – 49 UNT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UNT 67 – 43 CLT |
| Jan 21, 2022 | UNT 65 – 51 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#179) | 0.9 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#184) | 0.22 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#197) | 0.19 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#192) | 0.508 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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