Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | USA -1600 ULM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +35 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USA -16.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -13.3 (+21.7) | 151.7 (-8.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -14.8 (+20.2) | 154.5 (-11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -13.0 (+22.0) | 153.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.6 (+21.4) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 26, 2024 | ULM 80 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 85.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#202) | -15.7 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#126) | -3.42 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#141) | -4.19 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#116) | 0.371 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.