Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +163 USA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USA -1.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.9 (+15.9) | 143.3 (+2.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.2 (+17.2) | 140.7 (+5.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.6 (+16.6) | 144.6 (+1.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.6 (+15.6) | 144.4 (+1.6) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#322) | -4.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#326) | -0.36 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#319) | -0.54 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#302) | 0.476 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 24.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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