Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +500 USA -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USA -13.5 (+24.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -11.6 (+22.6) | 131.0 (+12.0) | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.2 (+21.2) | 133.7 (+9.3) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -11.1 (+22.1) | 131.1 (+11.9) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -11.4 (+22.4) | 132.2 (+10.8) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 26, 2024 | ULM 80 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#348) | 3.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.46 (#359) | 0.40 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#359) | 0.67 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#361) | 0.504 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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