Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +440 USA -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +4 | 188 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -7.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+35.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -8.1 (+4.1) | 142.9 (+45.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -8.2 (+4.2) | 146.5 (+41.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -8.8 (+4.8) | 143.3 (+44.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -9.6 (+5.6) | 144.9 (+43.1) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 26, 2024 | ULM 80 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-15 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#346) | -2.6 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#352) | 0.73 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.67 (#353) | 0.83 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.325 (#359) | 0.504 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 12.6% |
Game Analysis
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