Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | USA -2500 ULM +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -17.9 (-21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -12.9 (-16.9) | 131.5 (-11.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -13.4 (-17.4) | 131.7 (-11.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -13.3 (-17.3) | 131.7 (-11.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.5 (-17.5) | 131.6 (-11.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 26, 2024 | ULM 80 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-11 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#123) | -12.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#167) | -2.91 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#156) | -3.44 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.356 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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