Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USA -275 ULM +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | USA -6.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.4 (+5.6) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -6.2 (+4.8) | 145.1 (+3.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.7 (+5.3) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.4 (+5.6) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Jan 26, 2024 | ULM 80 – 66 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#247) | -7.7 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#217) | -0.99 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#220) | -1.19 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#232) | 0.460 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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