Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -285 OSU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +17 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -4.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -4.8 (+12.2) | 142.0 (-11.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.3 (+11.7) | 138.2 (-7.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.7 (+12.3) | 141.8 (-10.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.1 (+11.9) | 142.8 (-11.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | OSU 72 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IOWA 77 – 70 OSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | OSU 82 – 65 IOWA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | OSU 90 – 78 IOWA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | IOWA 79 – 77 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#30) | 14.7 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#33) | 2.22 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#35) | 3.06 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#48) | 0.568 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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