Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA +115 OSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +12 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -0.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -1.3 (-10.7) | 154.3 (+13.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -1.2 (-10.8) | 152.2 (+15.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -1.2 (-10.8) | 152.3 (+15.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -1.3 (-10.7) | 154.1 (+13.9) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | OSU 72 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 OSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IOWA 77 – 70 OSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | OSU 82 – 65 IOWA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | IOWA 79 – 77 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#47) | 11.0 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#64) | 1.56 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#54) | 2.07 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#88) | 0.559 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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