Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | IOWA -250 OSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -6.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -5.1 (-3.1) | 154.8 (+1.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.5 (-3.5) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -5.3 (-3.3) | 151.7 (+4.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.2 (-3.2) | 153.1 (+2.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | OSU 72 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 OSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IOWA 77 – 70 OSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | OSU 82 – 65 IOWA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | OSU 90 – 78 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#41) | 8.9 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#81) | 1.22 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#70) | 1.68 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#102) | 0.557 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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