Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -110 USU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | USU -2.6 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.2 (+15.8) | 146.2 (+14.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.1 (+16.9) | 144.7 (+16.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -0.0 (+17.0) | 146.0 (+15.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.4 (+16.6) | 148.0 (+13.0) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SDSU 86 – 70 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#49) | 17.0 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#55) | 2.59 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#53) | 3.12 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#50) | 0.626 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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