We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Mountain West Conference · Viejas Arena · February 26, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread USU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money SDSU -110 / USU -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +17 161 Won
Massey USU -2.6 (+19.6)
Massey Totals 152.6 (+8.4)
Bradley-Terry 42%
Weighted B-T 47%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -0.1 (+16.9) 144.7 (+16.3) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML USU -0.0 (+17.0) 146.0 (+15.0) 49%
Baseline ML SDSU -0.4 (+16.6) 148.0 (+13.0) 55%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -1.2 (+15.8) 146.2 (+14.8) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 14, 2026 USU 7362 SDSU
Jan 31, 2026 USU 7166 SDSU
Feb 23, 2025 USU 7971 SDSU
Dec 28, 2024 USU 6766 SDSU
Mar 16, 2024 SDSU 8670 USU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU USU
Overall 22-11 29-7
Conference 14-6 15-5
Home 14-2 14-1
Away 5-5 7-5
Neutral 3-4 8-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.8 81.4
Avg Pts Against 71.3 71.2
Massey 11.5 (#49) 17.0 (#24)
Bradley-Terry 1.75 (#55) 2.59 (#30)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.42 (#53) 3.12 (#39)
RPI 0.578 (#50) 0.626 (#19)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU USU
FG% 46.6% 50.5%
3PT% 35.3% 36.2%
REB / G 34.6 34.8
OREB / G 9.8 11.2
AST / TO 1.20 1.62
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 57.8%
TOV% 17.6% 15.8%
ORB% 30.0% 34.8%
FT Rate 28.0% 26.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 21.4% 20.8%
DRB% 69.2% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 28.1% 28.9%

Game Analysis

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